Vermont’s Canadian tourism decline drew direct Senate attention on 22 July, when Democratic Vermont senator Peter Welch urged U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to ask President Donald Trump to adopt a ‘much more courteous’ tone toward Canadians, citing a 40% drop in cross-border visits to the state. The appeal came during the President’s 2026 Trade Policy Agenda hearing and underlined the acute pressure that a combination of tariff policy and political rhetoric has placed on one of New England’s most Canada-dependent tourism economies.
Vermont Canadian tourism decline: what the numbers show
Before the current period of cross-border tensions, 750,000 Canadians visited Vermont annually, contributing $150 million to the state’s economy, according to data from the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing. Vermont commerce officials have since estimated roughly $75 million in lost Canadian spending since the start of the Trump administration, with accommodations, food and alcohol sales among the hardest-hit sectors. Canadian traffic was already down approximately 25% to 30% in 2025.
The scale of the pullback becomes sharper when broken down by transaction data. Visitor spending by Canadians, as measured by credit card point-of-sale transactions, decreased 47% from 2024 to 2025, according to TheTravel. On the accommodation side, Canadian reservations at hotels and inns across Vermont have decreased by up to 45% since February, VT Digger reported. Together, those figures illustrate how broadly the shortfall has spread across the state’s visitor economy.
Amy Spear, president of the Vermont Chamber of Commerce, told WCAX-TV in May that Canadian tourism ‘has not gotten much better’ and that a ‘not right now’ attitude among Canadian travellers had only ‘solidified’. Tim Tierney of the Vermont Agency of Commerce and Community Development pointed to the tariffs as a factor freezing cross-border business expansion as well as leisure travel.
Senate hearing and the tariff backdrop
Welch was direct in his questioning of Greer, tying the tourism drop explicitly to presidential language. ‘Our tourism is down about 40%. A lot of that has to do with the rhetoric that the president has used,’ Welch told Greer. ‘”51st state,” “governor of Canada”, that rhetoric has really inhibited Canadians from coming down.’ He also stressed that tariff changes had ‘really, really’ troubled Vermont’s economy. Greer acknowledged the concern and said he wants to ‘work’ with Welch on the matter, while cautioning that a resolution would not come overnight.
The hearing took place days after Trump imposed an additional 50% tariff on various imported Canadian goods, citing what the White House described as ‘unequal treatment of U.S. commerce.’ Those new tariffs are scheduled to take effect on 19 August 2026, a date that Vermont’s tourism sector is watching closely given the tentative signs of recovery visible in spring spending data.
The political optics were layered: both Welch and Trump expressed what each described as affection for Canada and Canadians in the same week, even as their positions diverged sharply on trade and tone. Welch said Vermont values its relationship with Canada ‘both emotionally and financially, and economically.’ Trump, at a White House press conference, said he has friends in Canada but that without the United States there is ‘no way’ Canada can survive.
Not all cross-border sectors are suffering equally. Energy production and sales, along with cross-border supply chains in the aerospace and semiconductor sectors, have shown more resilience during the downturn, according to WWNY-TV. The divergence reinforces a pattern familiar across border economies: capital-intensive industrial ties tend to outlast the discretionary travel spend that evaporates quickly when sentiment shifts.
Recovery signals and Vermont’s outreach campaign
There are qualified signs of a spring rebound. A report from Vermont’s Agency of Commerce and Community Development found that Canadian credit card spending in Vermont rose 58% in April and 40% in May, compared with the same months in 2025. Mike Shea, owner of the Spirit of Ethan Allen cruise ship company in Burlington, told NBC 5 in July that his first customer of the year was Canadian. ‘Last year we didn’t see Canadians. I mean, it was somewhere close to zero,’ Shea said. ‘This year our first customer was a Canadian, so it was very enjoyable.’
Vermont has moved to actively court returning visitors through the ‘100% Love for Canada’ initiative launched by Vermont Vacation, the state’s official tourism platform. The campaign bundles deals, discounts and events with messaging designed to signal that Canadians remain welcome. The initiative’s website tells potential visitors: ‘As always, we’re excited to welcome you to Vermont when the time feels right, and to share everything that makes Vermont unique, like our landscape, our food, our towns, and our people who know that Vermont’s a better place when you’re around.’
The 19 August tariff deadline now serves as the clearest near-term pressure point for an industry that had only just begun to see credit card data move in the right direction.
